(Complete list can be provided upon request)


1. Long-Term Fiscal Challenges

“Public Investment: Vital for Growth and Renewal, but Should it be a Countercyclical Weapon,” (paper presented for UNCTAD High Level Seminar on the Role of Public Investment for Social and Economic Development, Rio de Janeiro (July 2009).

“People and Places: Can They Align to Bring Growth to Africa: Do Demographic Factors Influence Investment in Infrastructure” (Working Paper, Center for Global Development (2010)

“Do Demographic Factors Influence Investment in Infrastructure,” (forthcoming as Working Paper, Center for Global Development (2009)

“Fiscal Policy in Kenya Looking Toward the Medium-to-Long-Term,“ with Kamau Thugge and Jane Kiringai (forthcoming in conference volume on Kenya’s development, ed., by Paul Collier and Christopher Adam (Oxford University Press, 2010).

“Assessing a Government’s Exposure to Fiscal Risk,” (paper presented at joint-Korean Development Institute-East West Center Conference, July 2008) (forthcoming)

Who will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2003). Foreword; chapter 1; article in Finance and Development

"Discussant Remarks on Social Insurance Reform in Japan," in IMF, Tackling Japan's Fiscal Challenges,.ed. Keimei Kaizuka and Anne O. Krueger" (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2006), pp. 204-209.

"Fiscal Policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," coauthored with David Hauner, International Tax and Public Finance, vol 13, issue 4 (2006), pp. 325-350.

"Characterizing Expenditure Uncertainty of the Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," (co-authored with David Hauner) in Research Department, Banca d'Italia, Public Expenditure (Rome: Banca d'Italia, 2005). (also IMF Working Paper 05-591)

"Long-Term Fiscal Challenges for Portugal" forthcoming in Conference Volume published by the Parliament of Portugal on Sustainability of Public Finances: Medium and Long-Term Risks (December 2005)

"Are Government's Overextended? Assessing the Spectrum of a Government's Obligations"
World Economics (October-December 2004), vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 1-33 .

"Actuaries in the Face of 21st Century Challenges," Speech to Society of Actuaries, (October , 2004)

"Can Europe Afford to Grow Old," Speech to a European Commission Conference on Aging in Europe," March 31, 2006, Brussels.

"Confronting Long-Term Fiscal Challenges: Why it Matters for the Global Economy," World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, 2004/2005 (London: Palgrave MacMillan, 2004), pp. 157-172.

"Internalizing Cross-Border Spillovers: Policy Options for Addressing Long-Ternm Challenges," in The New Public Finance: Responding to Global Challenges, ed. by Inge Kaul and Pedro Conceiçao (New York, Oxford University Press, 2006), pp. 131-151.

"India: Today's Fiscal Policy Imperatives Seen in the Context of Longer-Term Challenges and Risks" in Sustainable Fiscal Policy for India: An International Perspective, ed. by P. Heller and M. G. Rao (Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 2006).

Globalization: towards a definition and an insight on its overarching impact, coauthored with Eduardo Aninat and Alfredo Cuevas (unpublished), Special Lecture for the XVIII Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society (August 2001).


2. Fiscal Policy, Aid, and Development

“Rethinking the World of Aid in the Twenty First Century,” UNU-WIDER Working Paper, 2011/67 (2011)

“Connecting the Dots of a Global Economic Crisis and Coming Demographic Change: Implications for Development Policy,” forthcoming in a conference volume, ed. By Francis Fukuyama and Nancy Birdsall on New Ideas in Development After the Financial Crisis (2010)

“Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development: The Fiscal Space Debate,” presented at G20 Workshop on Fiscal Policy (Istanbul, 2007)

"Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scale Up Aid," co-authored with Menachem Katz, , Xavier Debrun, Theo Thomas, Taline Koranchelian and Isabell Adenauer, World Economics, vol 7, No. 3 (July-September, 2006), pp. 1-44.; also issued as a IMF Working Paper No. 06.

Co-editor with M. Govinda Rao, Sustainable Fiscal Policy for India: An International Perspective, editor, 2006 (Oxford University Press, New Delhi).

"Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-up of Aid Flows" World Economics, vol. 6, No. 4 (October-December 2005), pp. 69-110.

"Making Aid Work: Facing Tough Choices" Finance and Development (forthcoming, September 2005) (also reprinted in The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, vol. 11, No. 3 (July-Sept 2005), pp. 58-66.

"Fiscal Space: What it is and How to Get it", Finance and Development (June 2005,)

"Understanding Fiscal Space," Policy Development Paper 05/4, (International Monetary Fund, March 2005).

"Pedantry or Prudence: How Does the IMF Account for Grants and Loans?" Finance and Development (December 2004), pp. 28-29.

"Gender Equality can foster growth and reduce poverty," IMF Survey, vol. 32, no. 18 (October 20, 2003), pp. 5-7, with Erik Lueth. (based on a speech, "Can the IMF Contribute to the Promotion of the MDGs relating to Gender Equality?" to a meeting of The Committee of High Level Women in Finance, Economics, and Development, Dubai, September 2003).

"Considering the IMF's Perspective on a 'Sound Fiscal Policy,'" Finanzarchiv, vol. 59, no. 1 (2002/2003), pp. 141-161.

"More Aid-Making It Work for the Poor" ,co-authored with Sanjeev Gupta, World Economics, vol. 3, No. 4 (October-December 2002), pp. 131-146.

Social Policy Concerns for the New Architecture in Asia, paper presented at the ADB-World Bank Manila Social Forum (November 1999).

Issues in the Use of Debt Relief Savings in the Social Sectors, (co-authored with Christian Schiller), paper presented at the Addis Ababa Conference on Poverty Reduction Strategies (July 1999).

"Strengthening Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa," in Deepening Structural Reforms in Africa: Lessons from East Asia, L. Wallace, ed. (IMF-Ministry of Finance, Japan, Washington, 1997) pp. 39-53; also published in Portuguese, ?Os Esforços de Mobilizaçao de Receita Na Africa Sub-Sahariana, in As Reformas Fiscais Africanas.

"Fiscal Policy Management in an Open Capital Regime," IMF Working Paper No. WP/97/20 (January 1997); also published in Spanish, "Manejo de la Politica Fiscal en un Regimen de Capital Abierto," 1998 in Revista Internacional de Presupuesto Publico 36, (Buenos Aires, Argentina) pp. 101-147.

"Operations and Maintenance," in K. Chu and R. Hemming, Public Expenditure Handbook, (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1991), pp. 52-60.

International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited, with Jack Diamond, IMF Occasional Paper No. 69, April 1990 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"The Budgetary Impact of Privatization: Examples from New Zealand and Prospects for Ireland," in F. Convery and M. McDowell, Privatization Issues of Principle and Implementation in Ireland (Dublin: Gill and MacMillan, 1990).

"Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs and the Poor," Finance and Development, Vol. 25, No. 4, December 1988 (Washington: International Monetary Fund)., with A. Lans Bovenberg, Thanos Catsambas, Ke-young Chu, and Parthasarathi Shome, Occasional Paper No. 58, May 1988 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure, with Richard Haas and Ahsan Mansur, Occasional Paper No. 44, May 1986 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"Analyzing and Adjusting Government Expenditure in LDCs," Finance and Development, Vol. 22, No., June 1985 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"The Recurrent Cost Problem: An International Overview," with Joan Aghevli, in Recurrent Costs and Agricultural Development, edited by John Howell, (London: Overseas Development Institute, 1985).

"Sectoral Adjustment in Government Expenditure in the 1970s: The Education Sector in Latin America," in World Development, Vol. 12, No. 10, pp. 1032-49.

Government Employment and Pay: Some International Comparisons, with Alan A. Tait, Occasional Paper No. 24, October 1983 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"Government Employment and Pay: Some International Comparisons," Finance and Development, Vol. 20, No. 3, September 1983 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"The Problem of Recurrent Costs in the Budgeting and Planning Process," in Club du Sahel/CILSS, The Recurrent Costs in the Countries of the Sahel (Paris, 1982).

International Comparisons of Government Expenditure, with Alan A. Tait, Occasional Paper No. 10, April 1982 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

"Comparing Government Expenditures Internationally," with Alan A. Tait, Finance and Development, Vol. 19, No. 1, March 1982, (Washington: International Monetary Fund) pp. 26-29.

"Diverging Trends in the Shares of Nominal and Real Government Expenditure in GDP: Implications for Policy," National Tax Journal, vol xxxiv, no. 1, (March, 1981)pp. 61-74.

"Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," Staff Papers, Vol. 27, No. 4, December 1980 (Washington: International Monetary Fund) pp. 712-48.

"The Underfinancing of Recurrent Development Costs," Finance and Development, Vol. 16, No. 1, March 1979 (Washington: International Monetary Fund) pp. 38-41.

"Exports and Growth" An empirical re-investigation," with Richard C. Porter, Journal of Development Economics, " vol 5, no. 2 (1978), pp. 191-193.

"Factor Endowment change and Comparative Advantage: The Case of Japan, 1956-1969", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, no. 3 (August, 1976), pp. 283-292.

"A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, Vol. LXV, No. 3 (June 1975) pp. 368-80. Also reprinted in Foreign Aid in the New Global Economy (ed., Peter J. Burnell and Oliver Morrissey), (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2003).

"A Model of Public Expenditure Dynamics in Less Developed Countries: The Kenyan Case," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 88 (May 1974) pp. 251-77.

"Cost of Effectiveness of Alternative Income Maintenance Schemes," with Richard Musgrqave and George Peterson, National Tax Journal, vol. XXIII, No. 2 (June 1970).


3. Aging Population, Pension Reform and Social Insurance Reform

Artificial Intelligence: provoking a debate on the financing of social insurance (SI), Presentation at the East West Center, University of Hawaii (2017)

"The IMF's Involvement with Pension Issues, 2006-2015," IEO Background Paper for its Evaluation of the IMF's Role in Social Protection, Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2017

"The Challenge of an aged and shrinking population: Lessons to be drawn from Japan's experience," Journal of the Economics of Aging, 2016

Japan: Imminently Aged: Lessons to be Drawn, Issues to Confront (December 2011)

“Is the Fiscal Crisis Forcing a Rethink of our Intergenerational Compact with the Elderly? Intergenerational Justice and the Challenge of Aging Populations” (Lecture at Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, 2011)

“Big Problem, Wrong Conversation: A perspective on the US Health Care Reform Debate,” with Barbara Opper the American Interest, vol. V, no. 3 (Winter 2010), pp. 56-65.

Social Security: Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis, Social Policy Highlight #10, (International Social Security Association), June 2009.
Book Review of “Pension Reform and the Development of Pension Systems: An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance by the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank,” in Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, vol 8, no. 2, pp. 253-255 (2009).

"Asia: Ready or Not," Financing and Development, vol. 6, no. 3 (September 2006), 18-22.

"Is Asia Prepared for an Aging Population?," presented at Nihon University Population Research Institute Conference, June 2006 (Tokyo)-to be published in forthcoming conference volume and IMF Working Paper no. 06.

"Discussant Remarks on Social Insurance Reform in Japan," in IMF, Tacking Japan's Fiscal Challenges,.ed. Keimei Kaizuka and Anne O. Krueger" (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2006), pp. 204-209.

"Balancing Public and Private Sector Roles in the Provision of Pensions," Speech to Chatham House Conference on European Pensions 2005 (April 2005)

"Long-Term Fiscal Challenges for Portugal" forthcoming in Conference Volume published by the Parliament of Portugal on Sustainability of Public Finances: Medium and Long-Term Risks (December 2005)

"Actuaries in the Face of 21st Century Challenges," Speech to Society of Actuaries, (October , 2004).

"Pension Reform and the Fiscal Policy Stance," co-authored with George A. Mackenzie and Alfredo Cuevas, Public Budgeting and Finance, (Spring, 2003), pp. 115-127.

"Social Sector Reform in Transition Countries," ?IMF Working Paper 01/35 (March 2001), published in Bank of Austria volume.

Public vs. Private Roles in Funded Pension Systems, co-authored with Robert Gillingham, paper presented at the Second Regional APEC Forum on Pension Fund Reforms (Viña del Mar, Chile, April 26-27, 1999).

"Implications of Savings of Aging in the Asian Tigers," Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 12, No. 3 (September 1998), pp. 219-252.

"Rethinking Public Pension Reform Initiatives," ? Promoting Pension Reform: A Critical Assessment of the Policy Agenda (Manila: Asian Development Bank, 1998), pp. 173-205.

"Aging in the Asian Tigers: Challenges for Fiscal Policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 10 (1999), pp. 37-63. Also included in The Economic Development of Northeast Asia, volume II, edited by Heather Smith (Cheltenham: An Elgar Reference Collection, 2002).

"Aging, Savings, and Pensions" in the Group of Seven Countries: 1980-2025, Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 9, No. 2 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1990) pp. 127-153.

Long-Term Trends in Social Expenditure in the Group of Seven Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025, with R. Hemming and P. Kohnert, Occasional Paper No. 47, May 1986 (Washington: International Monetary Fund)


4. Health Policy Issues

“Big Problem, Wrong Conversation: A perspective on the US Health Care Reform Debate,” with Barbara Opper the American Interest, vol. V, no. 3 (Winter 2010), pp. 56-65.

“What Can be Learned from Data for Financing of Global Health: Comment,” Lancet, volume 373, No. 9681 (June 20, 2009), pp. 2087-2088.

What Should Macroeconomists Know about Health Care Policy? A Primer, IMF Working Paper No. 06/ (December 2006)

"The Prospects of creating 'Fiscal Space' for the health sector," Health Policy and Planning, Vol. 21, No.2 (January, 2006), pp. 75-79.

Box on "Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care Systems," World Economic Outlook (September, 2004), pp. 158-159.

"Health Workers Here and There," International Herald Tribune, (July 25, 2002); coauthored with Professor Anne Mills.

"Social Sector Reform in Transition Countries," ?IMF Working Paper 01/35 (March 2001), published in Bank of Austria volume.

"Death and Taxes: The Economics of Tobacco Control," Finance & Development (December 1999).

"A Model of the Demand for Medical and Health Services in West Malaysia," Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 16 (1982) pp. 267-84.

"The Cost and Financing of Some PHCW Training Schemes: Some Initial Thoughts," in The Training and Support of Primary Health Workers (Washington, National Council of International Health, 1981) pp. 101-03.

"Interactions of Malnutrition and Child Morbidity in Colombia: An Economic Analysis," with W. D. Drake, Journal of Development Economics (June 1979) pp. 203-35.

"Issues in the Allocation of Resources in the Medical Sector of Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 27, No. 1 (October 1978) pp. 121-47.

"The Strategy of Health Sector Planning in the Peoples Republic of China," in Medicine and Public Health in China, M. Wegman and T. Lin, eds. (Josiah Macy Foundation, 1973).


5. Climate Change

Issues Arising in Considering the Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (October 2008).

Some thoughts on a strategy for adaptation to climate change in Europe (Sept. 2008).

“Addressing Climate Change: Is there a Role to be played by the IMF,” World Economics January-March 2007, vol 8, No. 1.

"Adapting to Climate Change," co-authored with Muthukumara Mani, Finance and Development (March 2002).

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